The global CO₂ concentration increased from ~277 ppm in 1750 to 419.3 ppm in 2023 (up 51%)

Perturbation of the global carbon cycle caused by anthropogenic activities, global annual average for the decade 2013–2022 (GtCO₂/yr)

Global fossil CO₂ emissions: 37.1 ± 2 GtCO₂ in 2022, 63% over 1990. Projection for 2023: 37.5 ± 2 GtCO₂, 1.1% [0.0% to +2.1%] higher than 2022.

There are sharp contrasts between the projected emissions changes for the top emitters

Emissions are expected to increase in China, India and international aviation in 2023, and decline in USA, the EU, and the combined rest of the world (Others)

Land-use change emissions are 4.7 ± 2.6 GtCO₂ per year for 2013–2022, and show a negative trend in the last two decades, but estimates are still highly uncertain. Projection for 2023: 4.1 ± 2.6 GtCO₂.

Combined land-use change emissions from Brazil, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo make up 55% of the global net land-use change emissions

The global atmospheric CO₂ concentration is forecast to average 419.3 parts per million (ppm) in 2023, increasing by 2.4 ppm. A bigger increase is expected in 2024 when the current El Niño has full effect.

Atmospheric CO₂ concentration has increased every single year, including in 2020, despite the drop in fossil CO₂ emissions, because of continued emissions

Global fossil CO₂ emissions have risen steadily over the last decades. Emissions are set to grow again in 2023.

For the last 100 years, it has generally taken a crisis to drive global emissions reductions. To stabilise temperatures, intentional, planned, sustained global reductions must begin.

The top six emitters in 2022 covered 67% of global emissions China 31%, United States 14%, India 8%, EU 7%, Russia 4%, and Japan 3%

Countries have a broad range of per capita emissions reflecting their national circumstances

Globally, decarbonisation and declines in energy per GDP are largely responsible for the reduced growth rate in emissions over the last decade. 2020 was a clear outlier with a severe decline in GDP.

Share of global fossil CO₂ emissions in 2023: coal (41%), oil (32%), gas (21%), cement (4%), flaring and others (2%, not shown)

Global emissions from oil continued to rebound in both 2022 and 2023 with recovery of aviation. In 2022 natural gas declined because of supply constraints but returns to growth in 2023. Coal continues to climb.

Emissions by category from 2000 to 2023, with growth rates indicated for the more recent period of 2018 to 2023. Coal use has returned to growth, and both coal and oil declined sharply in the pandemic year 2020.

Consumption of natural gas declined in 2022, but oil recovered most of its pandemic-period losses. Renewable energy continued to grow, but needs to grow even faster to replace fossil energy consumption.

China’s coal consumption continued to grow strongly in 2023, while emissions from oil recovered their losses from 2022’s COVID-19 lockdowns

The USA’s emissions from coal are expected to drop again in 2023, to their lowest level since 1902, as the transition to natural gas continues. Emissions from oil are still below 2019’s level.

India’s emissions continue to grow sharply in 2023. Increases in solar and wind capacity were far from sufficient to meet a large increase in power demand as the economy grows strongly.

The EU’s emissions from all three fossil fuels are expected to have declined in 2023, resulting from high prices and other economic headwinds on top of existing trends.

In the Rest of the World, emissions from coal grow slightly while natural gas is flat. Oil in international aviation grew strongly again, but total oil in all other countries declined.

The production of cement results in ‘process’ emissions of CO₂ from the chemical reaction. During its lifetime, cement slowly absorbs CO₂ from the atmosphere.

Total global emissions, projected to reach 40.9 ± 3.2 GtCO₂ in 2023, 47% over 1990. Percentage land-use change: 42% in 1960, 12% averaged 2013–2022.

Carbon emissions are partitioned among the atmosphere and carbon sinks on land and in the ocean. The “imbalance” between total emissions and total sinks is an active area of research.

The ocean carbon sink, estimated by Global Ocean Biogeochemical Models and observation-based data products, amounts to 10.4 ± 1.5 GtCO₂/yr for 2013–2022 and 10.2 ± 1.5 GtCO₂/yr in 2022. The ocean CO₂ sink has not grown since 2019 due to a triple La Niña event during 2020–2022.

The land carbon sink, estimated by Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, was 12.3 ± 3.1 GtCO₂/yr during 2013–2022 and 13.9 ± 3.0 GtCO₂/yr in 2022. The total CO₂ fluxes on land (including land-use change) are also constrained by atmospheric inversions.

The cumulative contributions to the global carbon budget from 1850. The carbon imbalance represents the gap in our current understanding of sources & sinks.

The remaining carbon budget  to limit global warming to 1.5°C , 1.7°C and 2°C is 
275 GtCO₂, 625 GtCO₂, and 1150 GtCO₂ respectively, equivalent to 7, 15 and 28 years from 2024.
2590 GtCO₂ have been emitted since 1850

Global CO₂ emissions must reach zero to limit global warming

Emissions from coal in China and India have been a core reason for global growth. Both 2022 and 2023 were marked by post-pandemic recovery in international aviation (bunkers).

Emissions by country from 2000 to 2023, with the growth rates
indicated for the more recent period of 2018 to 2023

Emission intensity (emission per unit economic output) generally declines over time. In many countries, these declines are insufficient to overcome economic growth.

The Kaya decomposition illustrates that relative decoupling of economic growth from CO₂ emissions is driven by improved energy intensity (Energy/GDP) and, recently, carbon intensity of energy (CO₂/Energy)

The 10 largest economies have a wide range of emission intensity of economic activity

The 10 most populous countries span a wide range of development and emissions per capita

The responsibility of individual countries depends on perspective. Bars indicate fossil CO₂ emissions, population, and GDP.

Asia dominates global fossil CO₂ emissions, while emissions in North America are of similar size to those in Europe, and the Middle East is growing rapidly.

Oceania and North America have the highest per capita emissions, while the Middle East has recently overtaken Europe. Africa has by far the lowest emissions per capita.

Allocating fossil CO₂ emissions to consumption provides an alternative perspective. USA and EU are net importers of embodied emissions, China and India are net exporters.

The differences between fossil CO₂ emissions per capita is larger than the differences between consumption and territorial emissions.

Transfers of emissions embodied in trade between OECD and non-OECD countries grew slowly during the 2000’s, declined to 2015 and have been relatively flat since then.

Land-use change was the dominant source of annual CO₂ emissions until around 1950. Fossil CO₂ emissions now dominate global changes.

Cumulative fossil CO₂ emissions (1850–2022). North America and Europe have contributed the most cumulative emissions, but Asia is growing fast.