The global CO₂ concentration increased from ~277 ppm in 1750 to 417.2 ppm in 2022 (up 51%)

Perturbation of the global carbon cycle caused by anthropogenic activities, global annual average for the decade 2012–2021 (GtCO₂/yr)

Global fossil CO₂ emissions: 37.1 ± 2 GtCO₂ in 2021, 63% over 1990. Projection for 2022: 37.5 ± 2 GtCO₂, 1.0% [0.1% to +1.9%] higher than 2021.

Global fossil CO₂ emissions are projected to increase by 1.0% [0.1% to 1.9%] in 2022

Emissions are expected to decrease in China and the EU in 2022, and increase in USA, India and the combined rest of the world (Others)

Land-use change emissions are 4.5 ± 2.6 GtCO₂ per year for 2012-2021, and show a negative trend in the last two decades, but estimates are still highly uncertain. Projection for 2022: 3.9 ± 2.6 GtCO₂

Combined land-use change emissions from Brazil, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Indonesia make up over 50% of the global net land-use change emissions

The global atmospheric CO₂ concentration is forecast to average 417 parts per million (ppm) in 2022, increasing by 2.5 ppm

Atmospheric CO₂ concentration has increased every single year,
including in 2020, despite the drop in fossil CO₂ emissions, because of continued emissions

Global fossil CO₂ emissions have risen steadily over the last decades. Emissions are set to grow again in 2022.

For the last 100 years, it has generally taken a crisis to drive global emissions reductions.
To stabilise temperatures, intentional, planned, sustained global reductions must begin.

The top six emitters in 2021 covered 67% of global emissions
China 31%, United States 14%, EU27 8%, India 7%, Russia 5%, and Japan 3%

Countries have a broad range of per capita emissions reflecting their national circumstances

Globally, decarbonisation and declines in energy per GDP are largely responsible for the reduced growth rate in emissions over the last decade. 2020 was a clear outlier with a severe decline in GDP.

The USA and EU have the highest accumulated fossil CO₂ emissions since 1850, but China is not far behind.

Share of global fossil CO₂ emissions in 2021: coal (40%), oil (32%), gas (21%), cement (5%), flaring and others (2%, not shown). Projection by fuel type is based on monthly data (GCP analysis).

Global emissions in 2021 rebounded strongly from their 2020 drop across all categories. In 2022 oil continues to recover, natural gas is down because of supply constraints, and coal is up.

Emissions by category from 2000 to 2021, with growth rates indicated for the more recent period of 2016 to 2021. Coal use has declined since 2014, and both coal and oil declined sharply in the pandemic year 2020.

Consumption of energy from fossil sources bounced back in 2021, but oil is still subdued. Renewable energy continued to grow, but needs to grow even faster to replace fossil energy consumption.

Annual emissions in China are expected to be about the same in 2022 as in 2021, as COVID-19 lockdowns continue and the property market is slowing sharply

The USA’s emissions from coal are expected to drop again in 2022, as the transition to natural gas continues. Emissions from oil are still below 2019’s level.

The EU’s emissions from natural gas have dropped sharply in 2022 due to supply constraints. Use of coal has increased to fill the gap, but this is expected to be temporary. Oil continued to recover from the pandemic, albeit slowly.

India’s emissions continue to grow sharply in 2022, with coal returning to its pre-pandemic trend. Natural gas supplies are constrained, but these form a very small share of India’s energy supply.

In the Rest of the World, emissions from coal grow slightly while natural gas declines on high prices. Oil, which here includes internationship transport, remains below 2019 levels.

The production of cement results in ‘process’ emissions of CO₂ from the chemical reaction. During its lifetime, cement slowly absorbs CO₂ from the atmosphere.

Total global emissions: 41.1 ± 3.3 GtCO₂ in 2021, 49% over 1990. Percentage land-use change: 41% in 1960, 11% averaged 2012–2021.

Carbon emissions are partitioned among the atmosphere and carbon sinks on land and in the ocean. The “imbalance” between total emissions and total sinks is an active area of research.

The ocean carbon sink, estimated by Global Ocean Biogeochemical Models and observation-based data products, continues to increase 10.5 ± 1.5 GtCO₂/yr for 2012–2021 and 10.6 ± 1.5 GtCO₂/yr in 2021

The land carbon sink, estimated by Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, was 11.4 ± 2.3 GtCO₂/yr during 2012–2021 and 12.6 ± 3.3 GtCO₂/yr in 2021. The total CO₂ fluxes on land (including land-use change) are also constrained by atmospheric inversions.

Process models suggest that increasing atmospheric CO₂ drives the land and ocean sinks while climate change reduces the carbon sinks; the climate effect is largest in tropical and semi-arid land ecosystems.
Globally during the 2012-2021 decade, climate change reduced the land sink by ~17% and the ocean sink by ~4%

Atmospheric CO₂ inversions allow to estimate the land and ocean carbon fluxes, independently from the land and ocean process-based models estimates, confirming the global carbon budget estimates of the land and ocean partitioning of anthropogenic CO₂

Large and unexplained variability in the global carbon balance caused by uncertainty and understanding hinder independent verification of reported CO₂ emissions

The cumulative contributions to the global carbon budget from 1850. The carbon imbalance represents the gap in our current understanding of sources & sinks.

The remaining carbon budget to limit global warming to 1.5°C , 1.7°C and 2°C is 380 GtCO₂, 730 GtCO₂, and 1230 GtCO₂ respectively, equivalent to 9, 18 and 30 years from 2023. 2495 GtCO₂ have been emitted since 1850

Global CO₂ emissions must reach zero to limit global warming